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The ChIndia Paradigm
"What we are witnessing is thus not 'emerging' Asia, but the 're-emergence' of a continent that comprises 60 per cent of humanity. Its two giants, India and China, are especially determined, as Indian author Ashutosh Sheshabalaya recently put it, 'to return to their 19th-century status, when they accounted for well over half of world economic output'."
Fan Gang, China Reform Foundation; Michael Garrett, Executive Vice President of Nestle SA; and Jean-Pierre Lehmann, Professor at IMD, Lausanne, Switzerland.
There is growing awareness (and concern) today about the simultaneous emergence of Asia's two giants, China and India, or ChIndia. Factors stoking such attention include the Davos World Economic Forum summit in February 2006, which was almost wholly focused on ChIndia, as well as the buyout of IBM's personal computer division by China's Lenovo and the unexpected bid for European steel giant Arcelor by the Indian-owned Mittal group.

An Ernst & Young study has identified a significant chunk of businesses in Britain fearful of succumbing as early as 2011 to ChIndia, largely because of an inability to engage proactively with such forces of globalization (this, in spite of the fact that Britain is one of Europe's most globalized markets). Elsewhere, countries from Bangladesh through Mauritius to Mexico face major challenges in retaining relevance, given the huge gains by China and India after the freeing up of world textile trade.

Hard facts and trend analysis is required to give meaning to actions by policy makers, especially in a time of such rapid paradigm shifts. There is very little information about what exactly ChIndia means.
What are the areas where China and India complement, where they are on parallel tracks, and where they (will) compete?
How does ChIndia measure up economically to the European Union, or the US, or the Western world?
Are their gaps in ChIndia's industrial future which Europe and the US can plug? Where does Japan fit in the ChIndia paradigm?
Does ChIndia's rise entail zero-sum issues for the international economy (given their massive populations), or at least partial win-wins; do some of the latter need to be already pre-empted by policy makers?
What is the future of the global exchange rate regime, given that the currencies of these two giant and fast growing economies have a massive purchasing power misalignment with the US dollar (or the Euro and yen)?
At what development / per capita income thresholds will China and India follow Western-style market trajectories, and make larger investments in environmental protection?
Does their current exclusion from the G-8 make sense any longer, given that their economic growth is of global concern?
Where do Africa, southeast Asia and Latin America fit in relation to ChIndia? Will they at some stage have to re-orient, away from Western markets ?
These are some of the issues addressed by IndiaAdvisory.

For some early insights on ChIndia, please click here.

To read Ashutosh Sheshabalaya's analysis on the ChIndian Locomotive and the World in The Globalist, Washington DC, please click here.

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