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Comments on the ChIndia Paradigm
History’s Great Wheel Revisited
A. Sheshabalaya, Rising Elephant
March 2004

New superpowers (like India and China) will arise to challenge America's supremacy, just as imperial Germany and the US itself were challenging Britain's by the end of the 19th century.
Global Trends 2020
National Intelligence Council, US
January 2005

The likely emergence of China and India as new major global players—similar to the rise of Germany in the 19th century and the United States in the early 20th century—will transform the geopolitical landscape, with impacts potentially as dramatic as those of the previous two centuries. In the same way that commentators refer to the 1900s as the “American Century,” the early 21st century may be seen as the time when some in the developing world, led by China and India, come into their own.

U.S. Shifting More Diplomats to Asia
Washington Post
February 28, 2006

For US Secretary of State Condoleeza Rice, China and India "are increasingly shaping the course of history."
Europe: Adapt or …
A. Sheshabalaya, Rising Elephant
March 2004

Two of (Europe's) largest economies remain in the doldrums, with France growing just 0.3 percent in the third quarter of 2003 , while Germany shrank by 0.1 percent for the year. For the EU as a whole, the European Central Bank forecasts economic growth of only 1.7 per cent in 2004. Europe's short-term outlook is not helped by the strength of the Euro, while its navel-gazing approach to engagement with the changing world order is hardly encouraging.
Europe's self-sabotage on trade
International Herald Tribune
November 1, 2005

The choice for the EU is thus between engaging the bigger world outside Europe, or self-destructing.

It's euro's fault, many Europeans say
International Herald Tribune
January 24, 2006

Europe: Economic facts of life
International Herald Tribune
February 17, 2006

Europe's economies are in the doldrums, and no one seems to know how to revive them.
Hindi's Unbearable Obscureness
A. Sheshabalaya, Rising Elephant
March 2004

(An) investigation by a leading Belgian Flemish daily 'De Standaard' ... concluded that L&H's collapse was engineered by foreign intelligence agencies; in the careful reasoning of the newspaper's editor, Wim De Preter, the Belgian firm was developing competencies in commercially obscure languages such as Hindi, which could be of interest only to spies; as Chapters V and VI indicate, India's massive e-government projects (potentially the world's largest), have made Hindi-language versions of their software central to the strategies of Microsoft, Oracle, Adobe and others.
Learning Hindi is a critical need: US
January 6, 2006

The US administration has identified Hindi as one of the 'critical need' foreign languages that Americans should learn to further strengthen national security and prosperity in the 21st century. While launching the National Security Language Initiative programme (NSLI), US President George W Bush is expected to request USD 114 million in funding for 2007.
Zero-Sum Realities. Who Pays?
A. Sheshabalaya, Rising Elephant
March 2004

To mark the outer boundaries of the relocation debate requires a straightforward exercise with numbers. If the world's entire economic output of $47.4 trillion in 2002 is redistributed equally (as some anti-globalisation proponents wish for), everyone - Americans and Europeans, Indians, Chinese, Croats, Colombians, Fijians and Ghanaians - would have a per capita purchasing power of $7,526, that is, just after Russia's current $7,971, but still some way behind Mexico's $8,493. Though this would make Americans four times poorer than they now are, it would still be over three times the average Indian's income in 2002.
Equal redistribution would of course be hardly desirable: the Soviet Union attempted such a miracle in the early 20th century; the Great Depression partially achieved it less than two decades later. Clearly, the world economy will have to continue growing to make leveling more than a zero-sum game, and part of this growth will involve new centres of productivity and excellence, even at the higher ends of the economic value chain.Meanwhile, in the long term, relocation-led income leveling within an expanding world economy is also the only way better align the huge disparity in costs of living.
Booming nations 'threaten Earth'
BBC News
January 12, 2006

Earth lacks the water, energy and agricultural land to allow China and India to attain Western living standards, a US think-tank (WorldWatch Institute) has warned….It said that if China and India were to consume as much resources per capita as Japan in 2030 "together they would require a full planet Earth to meet their needs", it said.
Asian investment in Asia - implications
A. Sheshabalaya, Rising Elephant
March 2004

There is another, more alarming statistic: America's $3 trillion debt (more than the purchasing power GDP of India) is going to become untenable. The bulk of this debt is held by Asians, who will inevitably see alternative opportunities emerging, in India and China, as indeed already has the American investment community.
Asia can ease risks of global imbalances
Financial Express
February 9, 2006

We need a mechanism for Asians to invest surplus savings in regional investment assets…. The standard recipes are three: revaluation of currencies in Asia - in particular the Chinese yuan, reflationary policies in the EU and reduction of fiscal deficits in the US;
End-to-end, top-to-bottom
A. Sheshabalaya, 

Rising Elephant
March 2004

As illustrated by Insilica, one priority for venture capitalists is the core high-technology sector of chip design, where India is rapidly moving to global dominance....

Imagine any chip, and India's IT wizards can design it!
March 31, 2006

But while China is fast becoming the world's manufacturing center, India is using its expertise in software to leap into the next innovative zone: designing chips.
Offshoring chip design promises to turbocharge business, letting companies produce more products quicker than ever before, and at low prices. Imagine it and India's tech wizards will design it, then Chinese factories will churn out the chips for it: It's just-in-time invention.

How moet u outsourcen naar India en China
A. Sheshabalaya, Trends
April 7, 2005

India is interessanter dan China voor kleine series en specifieke producten...
Weeg sterkten en zwakten van China en India tegen elkaar af.

In India, "next great" industrial story
International Herald Tribune
April 17, 2006


Experts say the two countries (India and China) will occupy different positions in the vast market for offshore manufacturing. The first wave of low-cost manufacturing to be sent overseas - the making of toys, electric kettles and television sets, among other wares - will remain out of India's reach because of the difficulty of running Indian factories as large as Chinese ones. Official paperwork and regulation is still sticky here, and power still costs about twice as much. But a vast middle segment of factory- made goods relies on a mixture of technical skill and low-cost labor, and here Indian manufacturing can be a supplement to China, experts contend. Not toys, but cellphones. Not hangers, but bras. Not patio furniture, but car parts. Not synthetic shoes, but leather ones.

India and China: An Entente Cordiale?
A. Sheshabalaya, Yale Global
September 20, 2004

In spite of some major differences, the two Asian giants have struck an entente cordiale of sorts, to avoid competing with one another. India has become the global white-collar services center, while China focuses on blue-collar manufacturing. As each learns from the other (mutual trade has grown 35 times over the past decade), these two countries will clearly be drivers of the 21st century.
The cross-pollination of India and China
International Herald Tribune
November 9, 2005

In its next incarnation, globalization will be more about interpenetration. China selling an endless flotilla of its manufactures to the rich countries, or Indian outsourcers winning jobs in everything from customer service to tax accounting to online help with homework, is hardly news any more….
Recent word of huge new investments by India and China in each other's booming economies - most specifically in their red-hot information technology sectors - may just presage the dawn of this moment, one in which the giants of the developing world finally and truly discover each other.

China becoming India's No.1 trade partner
Financial Express
December 19, 2005

China is all set to emerge as India’s leading trade partner in the near future, leaving its current number one partner the US much behind. Trade with China registered a hike of 521%, between 2000-2005 as against its trade with US, which increased by 63% during the same period, according to an Assocham study on Indo-China trade.
Europe’s zero-sum protectionism
A. Sheshabalaya, Yale Global
September 20, 2004

The damage that countries like India and China may do to France, for example, by a ‘national effort’ to favor Boeing over Airbus, will far outweigh the benefits of (France’s) controversial 1 billion Euro anti-offshoring subsidy....
Indians Buy $7 billion Airbus, Boeing Jets
December 6, 2005

"China and India could be the drivers of growth in the future," said Airbus chief executive Noel Fogeard.

Indian Carriers Snap Up Planes, Engines
Associated Press
February 22, 2006

India's airlines bought billions of dollars worth of planes and engines this week.....
The buying spree illustrates a remarkable boom in India's aviation sector, which has charted a passenger growth rate of between 25-30 percent in recent years, thanks partly to rising incomes in India's 300 million-strong middle class....
India and China are among the customers most sought after by more than 930 exhibitors from 43 countries participating in the Asian Aerospace show, which concludes Sunday.

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